In the name of the Revolution.
Iran is the 4th biggest oil producer in the world and the 2nd on Natural Gas reserves. There is an existing blocking impose by Washington because, among other things, of the Nuclear Energy production on going, but it was override by China and some countries of Latin America which is just the tip of how complicated is the situation of Iran for be analyze.
I wish I had more information to use, now is not that hard to find, but still hard to confirm, and a lot of history and mysterious details to deal with. I´ll dare to say that is a very untrustworthy political and mediated environment, even before the elections, for instance surveys are conducted in some creative ways to assure reliability (mostly from bordering countries) The ABC News and the BBC have received awards for their work.
Left press and critics often sympathize with Ahmadinejad, who is a State leader of hard-lines policies rendering difficult to dialog and deal with for the international community. Also since Ahmadinejad supported the Palestinian cause, not only counts with some important national support, but also some key international support.
Intellectuals, critics and reporters are somehow divided; of course, the Western group is bigger and speaks louder. He was the answer and gateway of Iranian people from the close-Islamic theocratic system. But, is Iran really better off now? For some history, from the time prior Ahmadinejad, is recommended to see the movie “Persepolis”. You will enjoy it.
Here is the trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PXHeKuBzPY&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fzinema%2Ewordpress%2Ecom%2F2007%2F11%2F10%2Fcritica%2Dpersepolis%2F&feature=player_embedded
Behind the images and screens to cover up the situation, lots of division (internal) is present and growing. Somehow is like two Iran being in conflict, not sure if class divisions are influencing, but surely ideological ones are, kind of modern/liberal/democratic Vs. Islamic/nation-based/democratic bands.
Fraud is present.
International organizations have claimed it, the official statement admitted “some” irregularities. The national organizations have not made much noise (as an attempt to remain neutral?), only few have accepted/greeted the “victory”. Is people and some of the few independent agencies and organizations who are doing protesting and manifesting the opposition.
Police is cracking down any protest, of course, no permissions are granted to perform a “legal” protest even in peaceful terms. Violent repressions are taking place especially to students. Are not student protests historically an indicator of, among other things, changes needed?
The democratic achievements that the Iranian society made in these recent years are now weighting enough to demand “reality”. Another cause of this situation is the way that the whole electoral process went through, showing many truths about the Islamic Republic, both (main) candidates, the parties and history that people needed to hear, all this is now influencing to the in-motion of the Iranians, there are millions of protesters in the streets, something not seen before in this regime. Some protest have taken place in the period of Ahmadinejad, but not this big. Yet, is not the entire population, I told you they are divided, how to know the real numbers?
Iranian people waited long for the democratic window to be open and now Ahmadinejad with the Guardians of the Revolution are taking the situation run backwards.
One of the many challenges is to hold up the Iranian economy which needs to have the population under control, if not the manifestations could become an insurgence, putting some more colors to the picture. Is important to be the witness of what will happen.
This "predicions gambling" game is not my style, but is interesting, with the available information I dare to enter the betting table with my opinions.
The protesters will be put down through repressive means, for getting back the “peace” and order. That is just one of the many things that the Revolution is doing and will keep doing for the “good” of Iran.
Tolerance to manifestations is definitely not zero. How long will it be possible to keep protesting is too much difficult to even dare to guess, it all depend on how what the manifestations achieve and how the international community presses. The G8 not seem to be doing much.
I think this situation has putt Iran in the exhibition table will enough lights for the international press and opinion to see (not deep enough, but some) what is going on. The legitimacy is damage, if Ahmadinejad remains in the chair, some restructuring will surely take place and I´m not guessing when I think it will be worst for the Iranians.
